big ideas 2021

1. Deep Learning

  • Conversational Computers
  • Self-Driving Cars
  • Consumer Apps

Deep Learning Is Creating A Boom In AI Chips AI Is Expanding From Vision To Language OpenAI’s GPT-3 Is The First AI That “Understands” Language

Deep Learning Could Create More Economic Value Than The Internet Did.

  • added $13 trillion by Internet
  • Deep learning has created $2 trillion in market capitalization as of 2020.
  • ARK believes that deep learning will add $30 trillion to equity market capitalizations during the next 15-20 years.

The Re-Invention of the Data Center

ARM, RISC-V, and graphics processing units (GPUs) New Architectures Re-Invent The Data Center Every Few Decades Intel Seems Frozen In Time ARM Could Power The Majority Of Developer PCs By 2030 ARM Could Become The New Standard In The Cloud ARM & RISC-V Could Become The New Processor Standards By 2030 By 2030, The Accelerator Should Replace The CPU As The Main Server Compute Engine ARK Believes That Server Processors Will Transform In The Next Decade.

Virtual Worlds

Video Game Monetization Models Are Shifting To Virtual Goods ARK Believes The Monetization Of Gaming Will Increase Video Games Are Becoming “Third Places“ Away From Home And Work Augmented Reality (AR) Is Primed To Scale “Virtual Reality” Could Approach Reality By 2030 The Revenue From Virtual Worlds Could Approach $400 Billion By 2025.

Digital Wallets

Incubated In China, Mobile Payments Are 2.5x Its GDP In The US, Digital Wallet Users Are Surpassing The Number Of Deposit Account Holders At The Largest Financial Institutions Digital Wallets Can Acquire Customers For A Fraction Of Banks’ Customer Acquisition Costs Traditional Banks Are Facing Potentially Sizeable Risks At Maturity, Each Digital Wallet User Could Be Worth Roughly $20,000

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals

As Support For Its Network Increased, Bitcoin’s Price Hit An All-time High In Late 2020 Bitcoin Could Play A Pivotal Role As Corporate Cash.

Bitcoin: Preparing For Institutions

ARK Believes Bitcoin Deserves A Strategic Allocation In Institutional Portfolios Bitcoin Trading Volume Is Comparable To That Of A Large Cap Stock And Has Grown At An Exponential Rate Institutional Investors Can Access Bitcoin In Sophisticated Ways We Believe Bitcoin Has Earned An Allocation In Well-Diversified Portfolios

Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Electric Vehicle Sales Have Taken Share In Good Times And Tough Times Wright’s Law Has Modeled The Decline In Battery Costs Successfully In Addition To Cost, EVs Are Competing On Range And Performance

Automation

The US Economy Is At Automation Levels Similar To That Of US Manufacturing In The Early 1990s Increased Automation And Productivity Can Provide Many Economic Benefits Automation could add 5%, or $1.2 trillion, to US GDP during the next five years. ARK believes automation will boost US real GDP growth by 100 basis points on average per year to 3.4%.

Autonomous Ride-Hailing

Robotaxis Should Expand The Ride-Hailing Market Three Autonomous Strategies Are Evolving

Drone Delivery

Drones Should Reduce The Cost To Transport Goods And People Dramatically Autonomous Air Travel Has Become Possible And Affordable Drones Could Deliver A Substantial Share Of E-Commerce Shipments By 2030 Drones Should Accelerate The Shift To Food Delivery

Orbital Aerospace

Lower Satellite Launch Costs Could Enable Continuous Global Coverage With Low Latency

3D Printing

3D Printing Applications Vary By Industry, Volumes, And Complexity 3D Printing Enables Many Form Factors

Long-Read Sequencing

The Genomic ‘Toolkit’ Is Expanding To Provide A Fuller, Richer, And More Accurate View Into Biology Historically, Researchers Had To Choose Between Accuracy With SRS Or Comprehensiveness With LRS As Costs For LRS Converge With SRS, Many Clinical Applications Could Shift To LRS

Multi Cancer Screening

Diagnosed Early, Cancer Can Be Treated Successfully Based On A Single Blood Test, Multi-Cancer Screening Can Detect Dozens Of Early-Stage Cancers Thanks To Rapidly Declining Costs, Multi-Cancer Screening Is Approaching A Reimbursable Price Point Multi-Cancer Screening Could Prevent Roughly 66,000 Cancer Deaths Annually In The US Multi-Cancer Screening And Other Genomic Technologies Are Transforming Oncology

Cell and Gene Therapy: Generation 2

Cancer Therapies Are Shifting From Liquid To Solid Tumors Oncology Trials Are Shifting From Autologous To Allogeneic Cell Therapies Gene Therapies Could Shift From Ex Vivo To In Vivo Editing



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